The opposition should focus on Zambia’s unique political dynamics, recognizing that the nation’s future hinges on the UPND’s governance and the opposition’s ability to present a credible alternative.
By Hon. Ponde C. Mecha
Lusaka, Nov. 17 – With Donald Trump’s victory in the USA and Duma Boko defeating President Masisi in Botswana, some sections of Zambian society, particularly the Patriotic Front (PF) supporters, have been swept up in a wave of euphoria. They see these events as signs that a similar shift could occur in Zambia, potentially allowing the PF to return to power and unseat President Hakainde Hichilema (HH) after one term.
Also Read: Lungu Hails Trump’s Comeback, Warns Against Lawfare Blocking Candidates’ Right to Run. Former President Edgar Lungu congratulates Donald Trump’s election victory and urges global democracies to reject lawfare, advocating for fair competition and candidates’ freedom to stand without judicial obstruction.
This comparison, however, while tempting, overlooks several critical realities about Zambia’s unique political environment. Here’s why those expecting a quick political turnaround need to calm their nerves and face the realities on the ground.
◾PF’s Internal Leadership Crisis: One of the most significant barriers to a PF comeback is the party’s internal leadership crisis. Since former President Edgar Lungu stepped down, the PF has struggled with factionalism, and no clear leader has emerged to unify the party. This lack of direction and cohesion weakens its ability to challenge the ruling United Party for National Development (UPND) effectively. The situation in Botswana, where Masisi’s party remained united despite his loss, or the USA, where Trump continues to exert strong influence over the Republican Party, stands in sharp contrast to the PF’s current fragmentation.
◾Uncertainty in Managing Political Alliances: In addition to its leadership crisis, the PF is also facing challenges in managing alliances with other political parties. Due to ongoing internal divisions, it is unclear which faction has the legal and political authority to negotiate and form alliances. This ambiguity makes it difficult for the PF to build the kind of broad-based coalition that could realistically challenge the UPND. In Botswana, Boko’s ability to rally a united opposition helped secure his victory. In the USA, the Republican Party remains largely unified behind Trump. In Zambia, however, the PF’s internal strife hinders its ability to replicate these successes.
◾Shifting Political Landscape Under UPND: While some believe that HH’s first term could mirror Masisi’s one-term presidency, Zambia’s political landscape is evolving. President Hichilema’s UPND government has been working on addressing key issues such as load shedding and hunger, which are largely driven by climate-related challenges. Moreover, UPND’s decentralization efforts and commitment to expanding the Constituency Development Fund (CDF) have improved governance at the grassroots level, strengthening local support.
While critics may argue that some issues remain unresolved, the government’s tangible efforts to address long-standing problems, such as infrastructure development and economic stabilization, cannot be ignored. The context in Zambia is different from Botswana, where Masisi’s defeat was tied to internal political dissatisfaction rather than governance failures. In Zambia, the electorate is more likely to focus on the broader picture, which includes ongoing efforts to reform the economy and governance structures.
◾The Memory of Cadreism: Another major factor hindering the PF’s ability to stage a successful comeback is the memory of cadreism under its previous administration. During the PF’s time in power, political cadres became notorious for their influence over public spaces and their role in intimidating citizens. This contributed to widespread discontent and was a key factor in the PF’s electoral defeat. The UPND government has made strides in reducing cadreism, presenting itself as a government committed to law and order. This reduction in political violence is a strong point for HH’s administration, as Zambians remember the instability and chaos that cadreism caused under the PF.
◾UPND’s Effective Handling of Social Protection and Food Security: The UPND government has also made commendable progress in social protection programs and food security, particularly through the Farmer Input Support Programme (FISP) and other initiatives aimed at safeguarding vulnerable communities. This focus on social safety nets has resonated well with many Zambians, especially in rural areas where food security and social protection are critical. While the government has faced challenges, it has consistently worked towards providing support to those most in need, helping to build a solid base of grassroots support.
Also Read: Boosting Rural Resilience: How NHIMA, FISP, and Cash-for-Work Can Secure Zambia’s Food Future. By adapting the cash-for-work program to benefit rural farmers, and improving the efficiency of NHIMA and FISP through targeted reforms, Zambia can create a more resilient and sustainable food system.
◾Conclusion – Face the Reality: While recent political events in Botswana and the USA may have fueled hope among PF supporters for a similar change in Zambia, the reality is that the political environment here is fundamentally different. The PF’s leadership crisis, challenges in forming alliances, and the lingering memory of cadreism all serve as significant obstacles to its comeback. At the same time, the UPND government’s focus on decentralization, social protection, and efforts to address key issues like load shedding and hunger has created a stronger and more stable governance structure that resonates with many Zambians.
Rather than focusing on external examples, PF supporters should recognize that Zambia’s political future will be determined by local factors, including the performance of the current government and the ability of the opposition to offer a credible alternative. Euphoria over international political trends should give way to a more nuanced understanding of Zambia’s unique political dynamics. The future here will be shaped by how effectively the UPND governs and whether the PF can overcome its internal challenges to become a viable contender again.
About The Author: Hon. Ponde Chunga Mecha is the immediate past MP for Chifunabuli Constituency. He has worked and executed various development programmes in the agriculture sector under various funding sources including GRZ, World Bank, NORAD, FINNIDA, FAO, Melinda and Bill Gates Foundation, USAID and the EU.
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